A powerful storm named Ilsa is rapidly intensifying in the southeast Indian Ocean and heading towards western Australia, with a potential landfall on Thursday. The storm could make landfall with at least a Category 4 hurricane's strength, packing winds exceeding 140 mph and a storm surge of at least 10 feet. This storm is rare for this time of year, as cyclone season in Australia generally begins around late October or November and lasts until May in the Southern Hemisphere.
Ilsa is the seventh named storm to form this season in Australia, and it is showing signs of rapid development, as per the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. The bureau is warning of "destructive winds" within a "very destructive core" that is expected to move ashore between Bidyadanga and De Grey, two rural communities in northern western Australia.
The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has reported that Ilsa is quickly organizing as its central dense overcast region, or core, expands, which is a signal of an intensifying storm. Infrared satellite imagery has also confirmed the storm's intensification, as it shows the temperature and height of cloud tops that match the center's observations.
Ilsa is expected to ramp up to high-end Category 4 strength, with sustained winds near 140 mph. This is due to the very warm sea surface temperatures and weak winds in the upper atmosphere. Weather models are waffling on where the storm will make landfall, with a roughly 100-mile spread in their simulated solutions.
The storm's path will make all the difference in conditions in either community, as Ilsa will have a tightly wound core containing the worst of its extreme winds. People near Beagle Bay to Whim Creek need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organize an emergency kit, including a first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food, and water, as advised by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.
The storm surge of several meters is possible on the east side of the storm's center near the eye, which could inundate stretches of the coastline, but fortunately, the area is very rural. Weather models indicate that up to 10 inches of rain could fall.
Western Australia sees Category 4 storms once every five years or so on average, with most passing over sparsely populated areas. However, Cyclone Tracy, the world's most compact tropical cyclone, rammed Darwin, Australia, with major hurricane winds in 1974, causing 71 deaths.
If Ilsa strikes western Australia at Category 4 strength, it would be the strongest to hit the area since Cyclone Laurence in 2009.
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